March 13, 2022

The basic membership plan has been discontinued for new sign-ups. Just 3% of all members are basic members. Current basic members are grandfathered in, however it is possible this grandfathering will also be discontinued at some point down the road, with appropriate advance notice. With that said, there are no plans for this currently and it may never be discontinued.

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The market continues with its test of the late-February low amid more volume on down days than up days over the past month. The focus of this coming week is Wednesday, which is another Fed policy meeting on interest rates.

The chart below shows the yield on 10s ramping up 30 basis points (one basis point = 0.01%) in just four sessions last week -- a major move. This tells us the bond market is not yet satisfied with the Fed's approach to inflation. Some day inflation will be high while the yield falls. This will be a tip-off the market's discounting of higher inflation is over.

Notice the descent in the yield in February. I was watching this to see if the bond market was comfortable with the Fed. But the down draft was short-lived.

Obviously, stocks remain in a tough situation. ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) lost 6.65% Friday. This might be the best indicator of aggressive growth stocks that there is. It is certainly better than IBD Fifty ETF (FFTY).

We had two triggered trades late last week. Sumo Logic (SUMO) was a short that took 1R+ in its opening day, Friday. SQQQ, the inverse ETF, was a stop-out if you were using the suggested stop pivot of 5% below entry. It corrected 5.6% before finding its sea legs and heading higher.

Cyclical groups like the oils, metal ores, shippers, fertilizers, and steels do not offer attractive long entry.

The game plan is to wait until the next rally in the averages offers suitable short entries in technology. There is no guarantee that there will be any attractive shorts on the next Nasdaq rally. Thus, instead of getting ahead of our skis, let's take it one day at a time and see what develops.

In summation, we are short-biased due to the trend of the averages being down. Longs are off the table for the time being. For long-only subscribers, cash is where it's at.

Kevin Marder

Trading Lessons
Introduction to the service (38:00)
Money management and risk management (20:27)
Bread and butter pullback (11:10)
Bread and butter pullback: Pt II (15:09)
Bread and butter pullback: Pt III (31:48)
Bread and butter pullback: Pt IV (30:16)
System R
Short-selling (25:53)
Wyckoff spring reversal (2:30) 
5-minute breakup test (8:01)