Are you concerned about the lower expected earnings for Q1 and its impact on the Leaders? Does the global slowdown forecast concern you? Do you think PE expansions got ahead of expected earnings and now we may see some more corrective action in the Indexes?

A:

At some point in our trading careers, we all must make a decision to either pay attention to fundamentals or to technicals, as it relates to general market analysis. Judging by your questions, it seems you are attempting to combine technical with fundamental in your general market analysis.

A true technician believes that the three issues you bring up are baked into the cake. In other words, all opinions and predictions by all participants are reflected by today’s prices. You seem to be focused on the common talking points that folks are probably talking about on TV and in print.

While some of us have an intellectual curiosity as to the “backdrop” (interest rates, earnings, inflation, geopolitical, etc.) and how that might affect the future, it is believed that actually making buy/sell/exposure decisions based on anyone’s opinion or prediction (either yours or someone else’s) is a recipe for disappointment.

I might suggest that you focus on just the averages and leaders. Virtually everything else is noise, in my view.